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Spring appraisal of the EU-Commission: growth predicted for EU-countries

„Italy’s economy is expected to return to growth this year, thanks to increasing external demand“, according to the EU-Commission. Photo: Christina Kindlinger

The European Economic Forecast Spring 2015 is bullish and predicts an average growth rate for the 28 member States of +1.8% in 2015 and even +2.1% in 2016.
But despite the positive signals, there remains a note of skepticism. The Commission is uncertain whether this reflects true growth being that the figures reflect the effects of „a rare conjunction of positive factors“.

The figures for the 19 member States, whose common currency is the Euro, are somewhat less optimistic: +1.5% for 2015 and +1.9% for 2016. By comparison: 2014 saw growth rated of a mere 1.4% in the EU and 0.9% in the Eurozone. The previous year saw economic stand-still and negative growth respectively.

The rare conjunction of positive factors alludes to a sharp fall in oil prices, bringing down the cost of living and freeing the way for increased spending. Increased turn-over is an important factor for predicted growth, according to the expertise. Also, the unrestricted monetary policy has a positive effect on the European Central Bank. And last but not least, the Euro lost some 9% of its value relative to the US-Dollar in the last year, making European goods more attractive for exports abroad.
This is why the Spring Forecast asks: „But will the economy be able to generate a self sustained and balanced expansion once these temporary tailwinds fade?“

The chart shows the predicted rate of economic growth in %. Source: EU-Commission

Our chart shows predictions for split up by country. Some non-European countries were included in the survey of the EU-Commission. The expertise gives a detailed analysis of each country’s development.

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(06.06.2015)